Flannel Jesus wrote:Then you agree with me, and you have agreed with me on this issue the whole time.

This is not origamis position, but this is my position.

No I do not.

Once again, there is no "4 flips in a row" because the previous 3 flips have already occurred and we already know the outcome.

According to you 4 flips in a row landing on heads has a 6.25% chance of occurring, AND every flip has a 50% chance of occurring.

So prior to any flip I bet you that the NEXT 4 flips in a row will be heads. I claim that has a 6.25% chance of happening and you agree and give me 15:1 odds. I bet $2, so if I win you owe me $30. If I lose I owe you $2.

We flip and the first flip lands on heads. You then claim the next 3 flips have a 12.5% chance of occurring and the next flip a 50% chance of occurring. I roll my eyes and tell you to flip the next flip.

The next (2nd) flip lands on heads. You then claim the next 2 flips have a 25% chance of landing on heads and the next flip has a 50% chance of occurring. Once again I roll my eyes and tell you to flip the next flip.

The next (3rd) flip lands on heads. You then claim the next flip has a 50% chance of occurring. I claim that the bet was that 4 flips in a row would land on heads, and just because you've seen the last 3 flips land on heads does not give you the right to change the odds to 1:1 and claim you have a right to do that because the chances have increased to 50% chance.

If the next flip (4th flip) lands on heads you owe me $30 because there was a 6.25% chance of that last flip (and previous 3 flips) landing on heads, and the chance of that happening is 6.25%, and the odds are 15:1, which is the bet we made at the start. NO RENEGING!