I want to play a game

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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:16 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:See page 3 of the conversation where he explains that, to him, 53 50 odds means "I stand to lose 1.06 and I stand to gain 1.06".

I believe he's realized since then that that's not how odds work.


There is no such animal as a 1:1 bet with 53:50 odds.

Say the odds are $1.06 : $1.0

You can bet $2, $5, or $50, whatever you like. If you bet $2 you win $2.12 or lose $2. If you bet $5 you win $5.30 or lose $5. If you bet $50 you win $53 or lose $50.

The bet can be anything you wish, and the odds are what it pays.

So he is claiming the bet is always according to the lower number in the odds, such as 53:50 means a $50 bet and win pays $53?
Last edited by Motor Daddy on Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:18 pm

Motor Daddy wrote:
There is no such animal as a 1:1 bet with 53:50 odds.


Yes, he's already acknowledged, I believe, that the way he represented the bets in the original post was entirely misleading and not what he meant at all.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:21 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:
Motor Daddy wrote:
There is no such animal as a 1:1 bet with 53:50 odds.


Yes, he's already acknowledged, I believe, that the way he represented the bets in the original post was entirely misleading and not what he meant at all.


So how does it stand now, according to him?

If the odds are 53:47, how much will the bet be? How much do you win?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:22 pm

All bets he offered are 1:1, as in, the payout and loss are equal.

There are no odds of 53:47. That is his miscommunication. Those odds don't exist, ever, anywhere. The odds for every bet are 1:1.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:26 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:All bets he offered are 1:1, as in, the payout and loss are equal.

There are no odds of 53:47. That is his miscommunication. Those odds don't exist, ever, anywhere. The odds for every bet are 1:1.


What changes after every flip, the bet amount? How is the bet amount calculated?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:31 pm

Yes, only the bet amount. He clarified, probably on page 4 or 5, that he's not offering me different odds, only different bet amounts.

After 1 head, he offers me a bet of 1.06 on heads or 0.94 on tails. Another heads, it goes up by 6 / down by 6 respectively. When it goes tails, it reverses back by 1 step, so back to 1.06 and 0.94.

That's basically it, as far as I can tell. Just changing the size of the bet and not the odds
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:37 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:Yes, only the bet amount. He clarified, probably on page 4 or 5, that he's not offering me different odds, only different bet amounts.

After 1 head, he offers me a bet of 1.06 on heads or 0.94 on tails. Another heads, it goes up by 6 / down by 6 respectively. When it goes tails, it reverses back by 1 step, so back to 1.06 and 0.94.

That's basically it, as far as I can tell. Just changing the size of the bet and not the odds


Oh, I get what the 53:47 is now, according to him.

It's not the ratio of win : bet, it's a ratio of bet amount for heads : bet amount for tails, so it would be the ratio of 1.06 for heads : .94 for tails, which he then claims those are the bet amounts with 1:1 odds for either bet.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:43 pm

Yes, those are the bet amounts but always 1:1 odds. That's his offer
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:55 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:Yes, those are the bet amounts but always 1:1 odds. That's his offer


What it should be is that every bet is $1, and the odds change according to previous flips, according to his belief.

So your first bet is $1, and it lands on heads, so you win $1.

The next bet is $1, and the odds for heads increase because it is less likely to land on heads 2 heads in a row.

1 head in a row has a 50% chance, and should have 1:1 odds.
2 heads in a row has a 25% chance, so the odds should increase because there is less of a chance of 2 heads landing in a row than 1 head in a row, the odds should be 2:1.
4 heads in a row has a 6.25% chance, so the odds should be 4:1, or something to that effect.

If on the 4th flip after 3 heads in a row you bet $1 on heads, you would lose $1 if you lose, and win $4 if you win.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:57 pm

Motor Daddy wrote:What it should be is that every bet is $1, and the odds change according to previous flips, according to his belief.


Yes, that's exactly right, that's what I thought he was offering me at first.

I wish you would have realized that before you spent 3 pages tag team berating me with origami for not taking the bet.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:04 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:
Motor Daddy wrote:What it should be is that every bet is $1, and the odds change according to previous flips, according to his belief.


Yes, that's exactly right, that's what I thought he was offering me at first.

I wish you would have realized that before you spent 3 pages tag team berating me with origami for not taking the bet.


I was going by his initial post that all bets would be $1 and the odds change. I missed the part where he changed the original post from "every bet will be $1"

I apologize for claiming you should take the bet according to your beliefs. That was not your belief, that was his mistake on not knowing the difference between a bet amount and the odds that dictate the payout.

I'm Sorry. Can you forgive my stupidity? ;)
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:10 pm

I appreciate that apology, fully, thank you.

I understand your confusion of course, the op said the odds were shifting but the odds aren't shifting at all! I would have loved to bet on shifting odds. The first two pages of this convo are me consenting to bet on shifting odds.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Ichthus77 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:43 pm

Does origami legit think the real odds on a flip change from .5? If so, FJ was the one finessin… but… not if my initial intuition was accurate and all break even after a large amount of bets.

I dunno.

Maybe the finesse is getting *elementary discussions* taken seriously.

In that case, Motor Daddy is def in-on.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:44 pm

Ichthus77 wrote:Does origami legit think the real odds on a flip change from .5? If so, FJ was the one finessin… but… not if my initial intuition was accurate and all break even after a large amount of bets.

I dunno.

Maybe the finesse is getting *elementary discussions* taken seriously.

In that case, Motor Daddy is def in-on.

Origami does indeed think the odds change. If you see a heads, the next flip is more likely to be a tails. If you see another heads, the probability shifts even more towards tails. That's origamis position, and why he's eager to accept 1:1 odds on those bets.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:47 pm

I actually think I figured out a winning strategy for origamis conditions, if we assume I'm right and it stays 50/50, but my winning strategy requires that I know origamis bet first. It's also very counter intuitive.

I'm not committal on the strategy to the point that I want to put real money on it, because I'm still only being offered break even expected value which... still isn't fair. But I'd be interested to try the experiment, with fake money, anyway.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 5:05 pm

Nah, I'm wrong, even that isn't a winning strategy in all likelihood. It relies on luck either way. It will always just be based on luck as long as I'm offered only neutral expected value bets.
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