I want to play a game

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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:55 pm

My bet has no junk data. Every flip counts.

Your bet has junk data. Only the flips that give HHHH or HHHT, or HHHH or HTHT, count.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:57 pm

If everything is junk that isn't hhhh or HTHT, then my approach already accounts for that, by ignoring it. I'm ignoring all that "junk" to begin with
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:57 pm

Yeah, it accounts for the existence of junk data.

Junk data skewes results.

That's why I designed mine to have no junk data, period.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:58 pm

There is nothing to ignore or otherwise account for in my program.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:59 pm

It sounds like you think hhhh and HTHT will come out in equal measure, unless you put some specific controls in place. I think that's worth pondering on at least a bit.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:00 am

I commend you for ignoring the problem of junk data even in practice, as we speak now, as you suggested doing previously for your bet.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:00 am

Commendable constance.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:01 am

Mine has no data outside of the data that is bet on. And you run away. What gives? Only if you can put your finger on the scale?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:02 am

I literally told you, I spelled it out for you: expected value. That is the beginning and end of the reason I won't take your bet. If you don't know how to calculate that, feel free to ask me
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:03 am

Either all the data is counted, or any data that isn't counted has to be factored and cancelled somehow.

Otherwise, you may be a very good software engineer, but nobody will ever hire you for scientific research.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:03 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:I literally told you, I spelled it out for you: expected value. That is the beginning and end of the reason I won't take your bet. If you don't know how to calculate that, feel free to ask me


What you said was that you were pretty sure you would lose every time. I can quote you.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:03 am

You offered me a bet in the op, and then you ran away from it.

I wanted those fucking 53-50 odds, and now you won't give them to me!
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:04 am

You can't just ignore data lol.
Last edited by origami on Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:04 am

origami wrote:
Flannel Jesus wrote:I literally told you, I spelled it out for you: expected value. That is the beginning and end of the reason I won't take your bet. If you don't know how to calculate that, feel free to ask me

What you said was that you were pretty sure you would lose every time. I can quote you.

Give me a bet that my position views as positive expected value. If you can't, no bet
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:05 am

origami wrote:Either all the data is counted, or any data that isn't counted has to be factored and cancelled somehow.

Otherwise, you may be a very good software engineer, but nobody will ever hire you for scientific research.

Sure, let's do the HHHH HTHT bet, and count EVERY sequence. I'm actually fine with that. Let's ignore NOTHING.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:05 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:
origami wrote:
Flannel Jesus wrote:I literally told you, I spelled it out for you: expected value. That is the beginning and end of the reason I won't take your bet. If you don't know how to calculate that, feel free to ask me

What you said was that you were pretty sure you would lose every time. I can quote you.

Give me a bet that my position views as positive expected value. If you can't, no bet


If you admit that that is a different position than your previous one, where you said you expect less than break even if you accept my bet, then I will consider it.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:05 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:
origami wrote:Either all the data is counted, or any data that isn't counted has to be factored and cancelled somehow.

Otherwise, you may be a very good software engineer, but nobody will ever hire you for scientific research.

Sure, let's do the HHHH HTHT bet, and count EVERY sequence. I'm actually fine with that. Let's ignore NOTHING.


What about all the data that is a H or T that the program prints that isn't one of those combos? Do we just ignore those?
Last edited by origami on Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:06 am

There are only 16 different ways to flip a coin 4 times. We count them all and ignore none of them.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:07 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:There are only 16 different ways to flip a coin 4 times. We count them all and ignore none of them.


Now I'm listening. What you said before was that we are only counting HHHH and HTHT and ignoring the rest.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:07 am

I'm going to sleep. I would like to see this play out fully though.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:08 am

Dream of a perfectly even amount of sheep.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:10 am

By the way, my position will be the same tomorrow.

The odds for any given flip instance will be 50 50 if the previous incidences of Ts and Hs is 50 50, more than 50 for H if the previous incidences of H are less than 50, and less in the opposite case.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:11 am

Sleep tight.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Motor Daddy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:11 am

origami wrote:Dream of a perfectly even amount of sheep.


He thinks .999...=1, so he counts sheep .999..., 1.999..., 2.999...

There can be no even amount of sheep, they are all infinite.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:12 am

Those are just different numerical notations. They make no difference on the sheep body.
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