I want to play a game

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I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:25 am

The game goes like this.

We will choose a trustworthy croupier to flip a coin 100 times.

For each flip, me and my opponent will have to bet $1.

My opponent will give me 50 50 odds on every flip.

I will give my opponent odds that shift depending on previous flips. They will shift in the following way:
-------For the first flip, the odds are 50 50.
-------Every time a flip gives a result, that result adds a 3% chance for the opposite result on the next flip. For example, if the first flip is heads, the second flip will pay 53 to 50 for heads and 47 to 50 for tails. If the second flip is also heads, then it's 56 44. If the third flip is tails, then it's 53 47 again. And so on.

At the end of the 100 flips, the smaller pot will be subtracted from the larger pot and the loser will have to pay the difference to the winner.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:49 am

Interesting game. However, there's an aspect of it that's unfair in your favour if the 50-50 position is true:

"For example, if the first flip is heads, the second flip will pay 53 to 50 for heads"

If the 50-50 position is true, this bet would be in your favour. If your position is true, then... well, you haven't given the explicit math on your position before, so I can't judge if it's a winning bet, a losing bet, or breaking even.

If you really wanted to put your money where your mouth is, in my opinion you would agree also to ALWAYS take the bet of the opposite flip from what last occurred. If a flip was last heads, you will take the 47:50 tails bet, and if it was last tails, you will take the 47:50 heads bet.

You say the odds change by 3% each time, do the odds reset when a streak ends?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:53 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:Interesting game. However, there's an aspect of it that's unfair in your favour if the 50-50 position is true:

"For example, if the first flip is heads, the second flip will pay 53 to 50 for heads"


Why is this unfair?

If the odds are in actuality 50 50, then taking the 53 bet would be 3% better. It's a steal.

Flannel Jesus wrote:You say the odds change by 3% each time, do the odds reset when a streak ends?


origami wrote:If the third flip is tails, then it's 53 47 again.


It simply decreases at the same rate. There is no streak counter.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:54 am

Shall we look for a croupier?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:55 am

The other side should also be equally constrained, because you've allowed for them to take a break-even-at-worst bet if your position is true, in betting the 50-50 odds for the streak to end.

So the opponent should have to bet 50-50 odds that the next flip is always the same as the previous flip, to be fully fair, and you should always make the opposite bet at lower odds, 47(decreasing):50 that the streak will end .
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:56 am

It's unfair because you're asking them to allow you to make a bet that they explicitly believe is in your favour and against their favour. If I thought there were 50-50 odds of it being heads, why would I allow you a 53:50 payout? You're asking me to consent to losing money at that point.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:58 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:It's unfair because you're asking them to allow you to make a bet that they explicitly believe is in your favour and against their favour.


Why? If it's 50 50, just as likely to one side as the other, then having a 53 to 50 payout for a 50 50 probability event is more money, not less, for the 50 50 position.

What am I missing?

Flannel Jesus wrote:You're asking me to consent to losing money at that point.


I agree of course, the game is totally rigged. But only if you accept that all preceding flips affect odds for the next flip.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:05 am

Remember, you don't have to beat the shifting odds to win the game. You just have to do better than I would against pure 50 50 per flip odds.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:06 am

We can cap the game at $100 if you want.

Not that the coin flips stop when a 100 differential is reached, but that any amount over 100 after all the flips pays only 100.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:19 am

Oh, my mistake, I read your original statement as saying that YOU will have the choice of 53:50 odds vs the opposite choice of 47:50 odds.

You're saying that the opponent gets to choose between the 53:50 bet Vs 47:50 bet, whereas you are forced to make a 50:50 bet every time, right? Am I understanding that correctly now?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:19 am

In other words, I can choose to make a 53:50 (or better) bet every flip?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:21 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:Oh, my mistake, I read your original statement as saying that YOU will have the choice of 53:50 odds vs the opposite choice of 47:50 odds.

You're saying that the opponent gets to choose between the 53:50 bet Vs 47:50 bet, whereas you are forced to make a 50:50 bet every time, right? Am I understanding that correctly now?


I mean, yes.

Flannel Jesus wrote:In other words, I can choose to make a 53:50 bet every flip?


No, it is not a constant 53 47 odds. Each flip will have different odds, depending on the previous flips. Like this:

origami wrote:-------For the first flip, the odds are 50 50.
-------Every time a flip gives a result, that result adds a 3% chance for the opposite result on the next flip. For example, if the first flip is heads, the second flip will pay 53 to 50 for heads and 47 to 50 for tails. If the second flip is also heads, then it's 56 44. If the third flip is tails, then it's 53 47 again. And so on.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:23 am

Why bother having two bets going on simultaneously? Why not just allow me to make the 53:50 (or better) bet every time?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:25 am

Jesus Christ, because that's the game.

It's 50 50 against shifting odds.

What do you say?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:26 am

I'm just asking questions, if you're going to get bent out of shape because I asked why then I don't want to play with you at all. Relax.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:29 am

Anyway, I'm down for the actual betting, but I think I don't want to use a person. I wonder if there's a better way...
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:30 am

We are using a coin.

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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:31 am

Stop trying to change the game, son. I'm relaxed but them's the terms.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:32 am

I'm fine with a real coin, I'm just not sure if there's somehow some possibility of us choosing someone who, unbeknownst to me, is conspiring with you (or the reverse, from your perspective). We need safe guards
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:33 am

Yeah well we both get a say in the flipper. I am sure there are plenty of posters here who we would both agree on and might be willing to participate.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:34 am

Despite being here for half of my life, I feel like I don't know anything about anyone lmao.

How about Dan~, if he's willing?
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:34 am

I would agree to Dan, if he is willing.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:35 am

We might need some plan B's.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:36 am

Should we increase the number of flips? Is 100 too few? I feel like it's too easy for 100 flips to end up with a 60/40 split or something.
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Re: I want to play a game

Postby origami » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:38 am

I mean I agree, I thought of that. I still went with 100 because A it allows for a bit of that exciting gambling element without being so small a number that the margin of error is too ridiculous and B it might take a very long time to sit by for 1000 flips.
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